I haven’t written about the Mariners in a while because for the most part, they are just really hard to watch. This team and the front office just seem to continue to go through the motions and doesn’t really get any better, and the only way to truly judge if they are getting any better is by their win/loss record. That being said, there are two transactions that occurred just before the trade deadline that were both necessary and significantly improved the team. Call it addition by subtraction.
I have long been a proponent of trading Ichiro since the end of the 2010 season when his batting average decline led him to drop from a 3.5 WAR (Wins above replacement) to 0.7 WAR, to this year 0.1. That is what is called a crash in the financial industry, not merely a decline, and is not uncommon for players that reach their late 30’s. Ichiro’s primary attributes as a player were his ability to get on base as a leadoff hitter and his defense. However, he never was able to significantly draw a walk. So when his batting average declined, his ability to provide value to the Mariners on offense declined. That, coupled with an $18 M dollar a year contract, made him expendable. His 2012 .261/.288/.353 line for the Mariners was killing them, no matter where he batted in the batting order.
What is perplexing about this deal prior to it happening, was the raging argument of where Ichiro should bat in the lineup before the season started. The argument centered on whether he was a better suited for the leadoff role or 3rd in the lineup coming off a 2011 season where he hit .272/.310/.335 for the aforementioned WAR of 0.7. This is a case where even a GM gets tied to the name of the player and the past and fails to look at the obvious decline of the player and their bias allows them to make poor decisions. I would suggest that if any GM in baseball were shown that 2011 stat line, without the player’s name next to it, and asked if they would bat that player first or third in a lineup that the person dumb enough to ask the question would be looking for new employment. If a player with that stat line HAS to be in a lineup, they should bat 8th or 9th, and one would assume it is a middle infielder with a stellar glove. Since the trade, a combination of Carlos Pigeuro and now the newly acquired Eric Thames have been playing right field. While the combination of both of them are exactly major league replacement players (WAR of 0.0), they are not being paid $18 M a year for the privilege.
The other move was sending Smoak down to the minors. When Smoak joined the Mariners as part of the Cliff Lee trade in 2010, I was a big fan of the move based on his potential. Alas, it seems that Safeco field is where hitters come to die. Smoak batted .234/.323/.396 in 2011 occupying the clean-up spot for most of the year, and struck out 105 times in 427 at bats. But he was basically a rookie and showed flashes of brilliance, mostly away from home, to the point where it was conceivable that he would begin to hit in 2012. In 2012, he was given 344 at bats and regressed to a .189/.253/.320 line (WAR -1.4) and struck out 85 times. The perplexing thing about Smoak is that he knows the strike zone, drawing 55 walks in 2011 and 29 walks this year, which is not fantastic but not terrible either. The problem seems to be that he can’t hit balls that are in the strike zone. Smoak was replaced in the lineup by Mike Carp, and while he is not yet producing (10 games) he did get a look last year with big club and posted some decent numbers (.276/.326/.466) in 290 at bats, or a little over a half season. While Carp strikes out at a slightly higher rate than Smoak (27% to 24%), he makes far better contact. Carp also walks less.
It is not a coincidence that since these two moves have been made that the Mariners have won 7 of 8 and King Felix is currently stymying the Yankees with a 2 hit shutout. Jackie Z was brought to Seattle to fix the farm system and build a winner. It is only a shame that 3 years into his tenure, that while making two very good moves near the trade deadline in 2012, that the Mariners have no stud minor league prospects to call up and fill the void that has been plaguing this lineup in Ichiro and Smoak for the past 2 years.
