The Last Stand of the Hyphen

It is time to say goodbye to The Hyphen. While I love the Mariners promotional commercial where they have a jersey made for Ryan Rowland-Smith that has just a hyphen on the back where his name should be, it hasn’t translated into pitching. With the game on right now at 5:32 PST, the Mariners are down 4-0 at the end of the first inning. His line after one inning is 4 runs, all earned, 4 hits, 1 walk and 1 wild pitch. No strikeouts. I am not normally a knee jerk guy and will try to remain that way, however, The Hyphen has had ample opportunity to work out his game and return to last year’s form.


Game update: While writing that paragraph, The Hyphen gave up a double and 2 run homer to Alexei Ramirez, the 145 pound raking shortstop of the White Sox, to deep left center field, followed by a HR to Konerko to right. (Ramirez is tiny but actually hits for more power than I thought (21 HR in 2008 and 15 last year)). So it is now 7-0, Sox, with two in the books.

The Hyphen was briefly demoted to the bullpen for Snell back in May when the Mariners were trying to decide which poison would make them less sick, and then had to stick him back in the rotation when Fister went down with a sore arm. He has started 18 games this year, and has amassed a grand total of 4 quality starts. (6 IP/less than 3 Earned Runs) That statistic is goofy to me as I am unsure how a 4.50 ERA consummates a quality start. Sometimes, major league clubs will carry a high ERA starter if they eat innings but that argument doesn’t carry water here either as The Hyphen has only reached the 6th inning in 6, or 1/3 of his starts. So not only is he getting shellacked almost every 5th day, but he is wearing out the bullpen in the process. This has to be having a negative effect on the other already beleaguered starters that give quality starts to the Mariners and the relievers who have to eat up all the innings that The Hyphen leaves on the table. Add to that that the Mariners don’t score runs for any of their pitchers and it is a recipe for an almost guaranteed loss any time he takes the mound.

One of the more disturbing stats about the Hyphen is his trending K/9 innings. Discounting his 2007 rookie season, where he only threw 38 2/3 innings out of the bullpen and K’d 9.78 per nine, the next 3 seasons including this year he has 5.86, 4.86 and 3.66 Ks per nine innings respectively. This is what we call in the financial industry a trend, and a poor one. He wasn’t stellar at missing bats in the first place and this downward trend is, well, not so good.

If I was a betting man, and I am, I would be betting against The Hyphen every time he pitches no matter how poor the odds. Not that I would ever gamble unless in Vegas. It is illegal.

The Hyphen needs a change of scenery. Either trade him, demote him or send him back to the bullpen. At this point, there has to be someone in the minors that can outperform him and learn from the experience in preparation for next year.

Final Game Update: 8-0 after 3 innings. Mariners announcers just mentioned that the bullpen is spent and that The Hyphen is going to have to go deep. Final score prediction: Bears 14 – Seahawks 3.

Lots of Sox, Little Runs

I am preparing to write some on the minor league system, an analysis of the moves made up to the trade deadline and the effect that Cliff Lee had on the Mariners’ staff and the effect that he is having on the Rangers’ staff. In addition, I am doing some research into this question: Is there a correlation between minor league team records and future play of the big club? I am doing this by looking at the minor league records for the past World Series participants minor league teams from 1 to 5 years prior to the team reaching the world series. Clearly, free agency muddles this as do a million other factors, but I would like the question answered for small market teams that do not go wild in free agency (i.e. exclude the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies). I want to see if a fair estimate can be made to when the Mariners will be competitive again.

So the Mariners are 5-16 in the month of July and 3-7 since the break. They have basically started where they left off entering the break (2-8 last 10 before the break). Unfortunately, their schedule has not been kind to them with 4 against the Angels (1-3), 6 against the White Sox (1-2 with 3 left on the road), 4 against the Red Sox (1-2, 1 left today) and two at the Twins to finish out the month. They have been outscored in July 93-57, including scoring an abysmal 3 runs in 3 games, 8+ innings against the White Sox and Red Sox before breaking out and scoring 5 in the bottom of the ninth to tie the Red Sox at 6, a game in which they lost in 13 innings. What is the point of all this doom and gloom?

There are 7 days left before the trade deadline. While I do not know the strategy that Jackie Z has in place beyond the obvious drive to improve the farm system, I haven’t seen/heard/read anything that suggests that he is going to do anything to this team. That has got to be unnerving for fans in Seattle because the team that is on the field right now has given up, and if they don’t start to look better, I fear that it is going to cost Wakamatsu his job. When players give up, it is time to make a managerial move or replace the players. The base running, fielding and pitching errors that have plagued this team starting with the Yankees game just before the break have been so bad that the Mariners announcers are even killing them on the air. That is rare, given that they are paid by the team, and travel with the team. There is a general malaise on this team that suggests that the players don’t care about the rest of the season and it is time for Jackie Z to start emptying the cupboard and refilling it with players that want to succeed.

More later as I hope to finish the minor league record correlation later this week.