I was planning on writing an offseason report on the moves that the Mariners made this offseason to improve the team, and decided that it wasn’t worth the effort. So prior to getting into predictions on this season and taking a look at the starting lineup, here is a brief review of what the Mariners did in the offseason. I am not really going to go into the bullpen moves much, as other than Chris Ray, they have the same bullpen as last year, with League closing (ugh) while Aardsma recovers from his hip injury.
Released Russell Branyan (1B), who was signed by Arizona. This move was made so that Smoak could assume the full time role at first base. Smoak was the lynchpin in the Cliff Lee deal with Texas.
Released Jose Lopez (3B). no qualms with this move whatsoever. As a 3rd baseman, he had a VORP -* of -13.5, good for second last on the entire team, and amazingly enough, good for 1,007th out of 1,012 major league players VORP rated in the major leagues in 2010. That means that he was the 6th worst player in baseball last year. (Side note, Casey Kotchman, who was also released and was the starting first baseman for the Mariners for most of last year, had a VORP lower than Lopez, at -15.2, or 1,009 out of 1,012 in the majors.) Nice corner infield, M’s.
(* - VORP is defined at the bottom of this article. It stands for value over replacement player, and does not take into account defense)
Signed Brendan Ryan to play shortstop and moved Jack Wilson to 2B, thus moving Chone Figgins to 3rd. Ryan’s career numbers are .257/.313/.342/.655 in 1,200 Abs, or about 3 full seasons. He draws a fair amount of walks, but no power. He does have a nice glove. I am ambivalent about this signing in that when Jack Wilson gets hurt for long stretches of time, which is inevitable (as of writing this article 6 games into the season, he is already hurt), and the impending callup of Dustin Ackley on June 1st (the only reason he is not on the team is with a June 1 callup, they maintain his contract rights for another full year prior to him being eligible for free agency. So I think that Ryan is an upgrade over Jack Wilson, only because Wilson is perpetually injured, but we will have to suffer through Wilson and Ryan in the lineup at the same time until after Memorial Day.
Signed Miguel Oliva. This is a nice upgrade at catcher, now that the Rob Johnson experiment as finally ended. He has been pretty consistent over the past 4 years at ~.250/.290/.450/.740, although I would like to see him draw a few more walks. He will be splitting time with Adam Moore, who the Mariners are still trying to groom in the starting catching position.
Signed Jack Cust from the Athletics to DH. I don’t have much issue with this signing either, if he can return to his 2007 to 2009 form, where he averaged 30 HRs, albeit in Oakland, which is a more hitter friendly ballpark than the Safe.
Resigned Erik Bedard (this is only mentioned because he has been injured since 1962, long before the Orioles hijacked the entire Mariners farm system in a trade for him under the ever watchful eye of former GM Bill Bevasi). Let’s see if he can pitch past the all star break.
So for an entire offseason with a team that lost 101 games and scored only 513 runs, which was historically bad, and runs allowed of 698 (middle of the pack in the AL), they did nothing.
So what is expected of this team in 2011? Well, unlike last year when everyone was making the Mariners the chic pick to win the AL West, this year, everyone is correctly picking them to finish last. The PECOTA rankings for 2011 have them winning 70 games, thus losing 92. I am going to be bold and pick them to finish dead last in the major leagues. Here is why.
2010 Starting Lineup 2011 Starting Lineup
Ichiro RF - Ichiro RF
Figgins 2B - Figgins 3B
Wilson SS - Wilson 2B
Guittierez CF - Guitierrez CF
Johnson C - Oliva C
Bradley /et al LF - Bradley LF
Lopez 3B - Ryan SS
Branyan/Kotchman 1B - Smoak 1B
Sweeney/Branyan DH - Cust DH
Note that there are only 2 names in that lineup that are different from 2010. A light hitting shortstop, a near rookie first baseman with promise, and Cust, a serviceable DH from signed from the Athletics.
Let’s assume that the Sweeney/Branyan DH combo is a wash with Cust in the lineup. Smoak will be an improvement over Kotchman, but is still a rookie and learning the game. Ryan and Lopez are the same offensively, so basically from my humble viewpoint, this is the same team as last year save more production from Smoak.
So basically, assuming that Smoak and some of the other players pick it up a little, this team is still going to score less than 600 runs. On the pitching side, here is the starter comparison from 2010 to 2011.
Hernandez - Hernandez
Vargas - Vargas
Snell/Fister - Fister
Lee/Pauley - Bedard
Smith/French - Pineda
King Felix will be King Felix and pitch 200+ innings with 200+ Ks and get to 12 wins or so, which is a shame. Vargas should be consistent although the shellacking he took in the home opener to the Indians was disheartening. I believe that the league has figured out Fister and that he was a one hit wonder, with a low K/9 ratio, but serviceable to eat some innings. I expect Bedard to be hurt by the all-star break just to be consistent with his previous 5 years in the majors and Pineda,who has looked sharp in both spring training and his first start, is a rookie, and will take his lumps as he progresses.
What cannot be overlooked is the positive effect that Cliff Lee had on the rotation while he was here last year. That effect is missing this year unless King Felix steps up into a mentoring role, particularly for Pineda.
In a nutshell, my expectation is that the Mariners are going to be tough to watch this year and that Seattle fans are in for another long season. It will be interesting to see what they accomplish in the draft in June given that other than Ackely, the minor league cupboard is bare. My prediction 60 wins, 102 losses.
While we no longer have the unbridled enthusiasm and 30 plus years of baseball wisdom shared by Dave Neihaus on a nightly basis, the Mariners still go through the motions of anonymity and the continued cycle of losing.
VORP - Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.
