So I haven’t posted to this particular site in a while because frankly, the Mariners continue to be unwatchable and I have been following the pennant races in the other divisions. In addition, I have been working on my website (www.garyinseattle.com) which has some musings on living in Seattle and the Buffalo Bills.
So to the point, I was listening to sports talk radio on the way to my real job the other day (KJR – 950 AM, Seattle) and the following fan poll/man on the street question was posed: Is Ichiro overrated or underrated? Fans were to call and text in on this question a simple yes or no.
First off, it must be understood that sports talk radio exists for the same reason as any other of the inane media outlets do these days, that is, advertisers will pay the station for air time because there are enough people that will listen to the show. Period. So far as I can tell, the entire industry would be waiting tables for a living (they certainly wouldn’t be playing sports professionally) if they couldn’t do this. What is also fascinating is that most of the hosts are “college educated”, sort of in the same way that Ryan Leaf was a quarterback in the NFL.
In addition to this is the sociological fascination that they have with their “fame” because they talk to professional athletes on the radio. I am not for changing the system, it just strikes me as odd what society considers important and famous. I can think of 478 roles/professions that add more value to society than Sports Talk Radio host.
In the 15 minutes that I listened to this “debate” about Ichiro, the host was sanctimonious, rude and refused to listen to any reason or statistics about the value, or lack thereof, of Ichiro to the Mariners that a couple of the more educated listeners had to offer. The host (s) are either uneducated as to what makes a baseball player valuable to a team or completely ignore it because it is their pulpit and what they preach, theretofore, is.
I feel it is my duty to answer this question, with facts and statistics that are important to the baseball team, to back up my answers, rather than just the ramblings of someone who is given the liberty to voice meaningless opinions and drive emotion in order to secure ratings.
When speaking of a players value to a team, there are multiple factors to consider. What is his value to the team as a corporation, to the team’s wins and losses and of course that value relative to the market for a comparable player.
When speaking of the value of a player, it is important to take into account what he is being paid. Ichiro is being paid $18 M! for his services this year.
Value to the Mariners as a Corporation
Ichiro is being paid $18 M this year as part of a 5yr/$90 M contract signed in 2008. He will be the highest paid Mariner until 2012 when King Felix will earn $19.2 M, which is also the last year of Ichiro’s contract. I have read and have heard on multiple occasions that the Mariners have a Japanese TV contract that pays them to telecast the games in Japan. This is a direct results of Ichiro playing here. While I cannot find the terms of that deal, it certainly changes the economics of signing him because that deal would not exist if he played for another team. In addition, there is a marked effect on attendance because of his presence. Despite the fact that the Mariners have been awful to watch for 10+ years, they still draw fan to the ballpark, certainly not to watch baseball, as I have repeatedly pointed out in this space, but fans do show up. So it is logical to infer, for business reasons and business reasons alone, that Ichiro may be worth the $18 M a year completely independent of his on the field performance.
Value to the Team in Wins and Losses and the Market
This can be looked at simply by asking how many less wins would the Mariners have with an average major league replacement player against having Ichiro in the lineup.
Prior to addressing that, I would like to address the argument that he would add wins if he batted somewhere else in the lineup. Most of the argument has been that Ichiro should bat third and that he could then hit home runs and drive in more runs. This is, um, preposterous. First of all, the argument that he could hit home runs because he hits them in batting practice makes no sense, either qualitatively or quantitatively. If he could hit more home runs, he would have already. There is only ONE time through the lineup that he is guaranteed to bat first, and that is in the first inning. The whole point of the top of the order batting where they are is that they represent the highest probability that the team will score more runs. It is entirely unimportant HOW a team scores, just so long as they cross the plate.
During this 15 minutes of listening to the radio, the hosts quoted Ichiro’s batting average 15 times, which is the least important statistical correlation to scoring runs. One of the hosts brought up on base percentage once, but sounded completely confused as to its importance, which is of course, the MOST important statistic as it relates to scoring runs. OPS (which is OBP and SLG combined) is second. All of this of course, is relative to the other players in the lineup, and given the Mariners have only one professional hitter in their lineup, and that is Ichiro, it wouldn’t matter where he batted. Bat him first, he gets left on base a lot, bat him third, there is no one on base for him to drive in, and given that his career slugging is .430, it is unlikely that he would anyway because it is difficult to score on a series of infield singles, sometimes even from third.
Ichiro’s line this year to date is: .316/.361/.398/.759 (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
His career line in the majors is: .331/.376/.430/.806.
The American League average for 2010 is: .260/.328/.407/.735.
What does that mean? Ichiro is well above average as a hitter so far as when he puts the ball in play, he reaches base safely at a very high rate. However, he does not draw walks. He draws at a rate of .062 BB/PA which is good for the bottom 2/3 of the league of players with more than 500 ABs (2010). He is just a smidge above league average in slugging and is almost exactly league average in OPS in 2010. Ichiro is the 16th highest paid player in baseball.
So from this simple analysis that our beloved radio hosts apparently didn’t have the time to complete, Ichiro is certainly overpaid, and could probably be replaced in the lineup by a comparable slightly above average player and it wouldn’t make a difference to the Mariners W/L record. Overrated? Who knows. Since players are generally rated by the media and the media was asking the question, it is hard to say. Overpaid? Most certainly, from the team’s standpoint, but maybe not from the Mariners as a corporation. Untradeable? I wouldn’t take on his contract but stranger things happen all the time.
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
The Last Stand of the Hyphen
It is time to say goodbye to The Hyphen. While I love the Mariners promotional commercial where they have a jersey made for Ryan Rowland-Smith that has just a hyphen on the back where his name should be, it hasn’t translated into pitching. With the game on right now at 5:32 PST, the Mariners are down 4-0 at the end of the first inning. His line after one inning is 4 runs, all earned, 4 hits, 1 walk and 1 wild pitch. No strikeouts. I am not normally a knee jerk guy and will try to remain that way, however, The Hyphen has had ample opportunity to work out his game and return to last year’s form.
Game update: While writing that paragraph, The Hyphen gave up a double and 2 run homer to Alexei Ramirez, the 145 pound raking shortstop of the White Sox, to deep left center field, followed by a HR to Konerko to right. (Ramirez is tiny but actually hits for more power than I thought (21 HR in 2008 and 15 last year)). So it is now 7-0, Sox, with two in the books.
The Hyphen was briefly demoted to the bullpen for Snell back in May when the Mariners were trying to decide which poison would make them less sick, and then had to stick him back in the rotation when Fister went down with a sore arm. He has started 18 games this year, and has amassed a grand total of 4 quality starts. (6 IP/less than 3 Earned Runs) That statistic is goofy to me as I am unsure how a 4.50 ERA consummates a quality start. Sometimes, major league clubs will carry a high ERA starter if they eat innings but that argument doesn’t carry water here either as The Hyphen has only reached the 6th inning in 6, or 1/3 of his starts. So not only is he getting shellacked almost every 5th day, but he is wearing out the bullpen in the process. This has to be having a negative effect on the other already beleaguered starters that give quality starts to the Mariners and the relievers who have to eat up all the innings that The Hyphen leaves on the table. Add to that that the Mariners don’t score runs for any of their pitchers and it is a recipe for an almost guaranteed loss any time he takes the mound.
One of the more disturbing stats about the Hyphen is his trending K/9 innings. Discounting his 2007 rookie season, where he only threw 38 2/3 innings out of the bullpen and K’d 9.78 per nine, the next 3 seasons including this year he has 5.86, 4.86 and 3.66 Ks per nine innings respectively. This is what we call in the financial industry a trend, and a poor one. He wasn’t stellar at missing bats in the first place and this downward trend is, well, not so good.
If I was a betting man, and I am, I would be betting against The Hyphen every time he pitches no matter how poor the odds. Not that I would ever gamble unless in Vegas. It is illegal.
The Hyphen needs a change of scenery. Either trade him, demote him or send him back to the bullpen. At this point, there has to be someone in the minors that can outperform him and learn from the experience in preparation for next year.
Final Game Update: 8-0 after 3 innings. Mariners announcers just mentioned that the bullpen is spent and that The Hyphen is going to have to go deep. Final score prediction: Bears 14 – Seahawks 3.
Game update: While writing that paragraph, The Hyphen gave up a double and 2 run homer to Alexei Ramirez, the 145 pound raking shortstop of the White Sox, to deep left center field, followed by a HR to Konerko to right. (Ramirez is tiny but actually hits for more power than I thought (21 HR in 2008 and 15 last year)). So it is now 7-0, Sox, with two in the books.
The Hyphen was briefly demoted to the bullpen for Snell back in May when the Mariners were trying to decide which poison would make them less sick, and then had to stick him back in the rotation when Fister went down with a sore arm. He has started 18 games this year, and has amassed a grand total of 4 quality starts. (6 IP/less than 3 Earned Runs) That statistic is goofy to me as I am unsure how a 4.50 ERA consummates a quality start. Sometimes, major league clubs will carry a high ERA starter if they eat innings but that argument doesn’t carry water here either as The Hyphen has only reached the 6th inning in 6, or 1/3 of his starts. So not only is he getting shellacked almost every 5th day, but he is wearing out the bullpen in the process. This has to be having a negative effect on the other already beleaguered starters that give quality starts to the Mariners and the relievers who have to eat up all the innings that The Hyphen leaves on the table. Add to that that the Mariners don’t score runs for any of their pitchers and it is a recipe for an almost guaranteed loss any time he takes the mound.
One of the more disturbing stats about the Hyphen is his trending K/9 innings. Discounting his 2007 rookie season, where he only threw 38 2/3 innings out of the bullpen and K’d 9.78 per nine, the next 3 seasons including this year he has 5.86, 4.86 and 3.66 Ks per nine innings respectively. This is what we call in the financial industry a trend, and a poor one. He wasn’t stellar at missing bats in the first place and this downward trend is, well, not so good.
If I was a betting man, and I am, I would be betting against The Hyphen every time he pitches no matter how poor the odds. Not that I would ever gamble unless in Vegas. It is illegal.
The Hyphen needs a change of scenery. Either trade him, demote him or send him back to the bullpen. At this point, there has to be someone in the minors that can outperform him and learn from the experience in preparation for next year.
Final Game Update: 8-0 after 3 innings. Mariners announcers just mentioned that the bullpen is spent and that The Hyphen is going to have to go deep. Final score prediction: Bears 14 – Seahawks 3.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Lots of Sox, Little Runs
I am preparing to write some on the minor league system, an analysis of the moves made up to the trade deadline and the effect that Cliff Lee had on the Mariners’ staff and the effect that he is having on the Rangers’ staff. In addition, I am doing some research into this question: Is there a correlation between minor league team records and future play of the big club? I am doing this by looking at the minor league records for the past World Series participants minor league teams from 1 to 5 years prior to the team reaching the world series. Clearly, free agency muddles this as do a million other factors, but I would like the question answered for small market teams that do not go wild in free agency (i.e. exclude the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies). I want to see if a fair estimate can be made to when the Mariners will be competitive again.
So the Mariners are 5-16 in the month of July and 3-7 since the break. They have basically started where they left off entering the break (2-8 last 10 before the break). Unfortunately, their schedule has not been kind to them with 4 against the Angels (1-3), 6 against the White Sox (1-2 with 3 left on the road), 4 against the Red Sox (1-2, 1 left today) and two at the Twins to finish out the month. They have been outscored in July 93-57, including scoring an abysmal 3 runs in 3 games, 8+ innings against the White Sox and Red Sox before breaking out and scoring 5 in the bottom of the ninth to tie the Red Sox at 6, a game in which they lost in 13 innings. What is the point of all this doom and gloom?
There are 7 days left before the trade deadline. While I do not know the strategy that Jackie Z has in place beyond the obvious drive to improve the farm system, I haven’t seen/heard/read anything that suggests that he is going to do anything to this team. That has got to be unnerving for fans in Seattle because the team that is on the field right now has given up, and if they don’t start to look better, I fear that it is going to cost Wakamatsu his job. When players give up, it is time to make a managerial move or replace the players. The base running, fielding and pitching errors that have plagued this team starting with the Yankees game just before the break have been so bad that the Mariners announcers are even killing them on the air. That is rare, given that they are paid by the team, and travel with the team. There is a general malaise on this team that suggests that the players don’t care about the rest of the season and it is time for Jackie Z to start emptying the cupboard and refilling it with players that want to succeed.
More later as I hope to finish the minor league record correlation later this week.
So the Mariners are 5-16 in the month of July and 3-7 since the break. They have basically started where they left off entering the break (2-8 last 10 before the break). Unfortunately, their schedule has not been kind to them with 4 against the Angels (1-3), 6 against the White Sox (1-2 with 3 left on the road), 4 against the Red Sox (1-2, 1 left today) and two at the Twins to finish out the month. They have been outscored in July 93-57, including scoring an abysmal 3 runs in 3 games, 8+ innings against the White Sox and Red Sox before breaking out and scoring 5 in the bottom of the ninth to tie the Red Sox at 6, a game in which they lost in 13 innings. What is the point of all this doom and gloom?
There are 7 days left before the trade deadline. While I do not know the strategy that Jackie Z has in place beyond the obvious drive to improve the farm system, I haven’t seen/heard/read anything that suggests that he is going to do anything to this team. That has got to be unnerving for fans in Seattle because the team that is on the field right now has given up, and if they don’t start to look better, I fear that it is going to cost Wakamatsu his job. When players give up, it is time to make a managerial move or replace the players. The base running, fielding and pitching errors that have plagued this team starting with the Yankees game just before the break have been so bad that the Mariners announcers are even killing them on the air. That is rare, given that they are paid by the team, and travel with the team. There is a general malaise on this team that suggests that the players don’t care about the rest of the season and it is time for Jackie Z to start emptying the cupboard and refilling it with players that want to succeed.
More later as I hope to finish the minor league record correlation later this week.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
A Day at the Safe - Yankees 8, Mariners 2
So I went to the game today. Great seats provided by a friend about 5 rows behind the end of the first base dugout. I don't have a lot to say about the game other than that the Mariners apparently decided that the all star break started at the end of last night's game.
I had forgotten how generally disinterested the fans are at Safeco as I had not been since last year. The loudest cheer during the game was when the grounds crew danced at the end of the third inning with the Yankees already up 3-0. While I do not want to continually harp on the malady that has been this season, I do want to point out that the Safe is a fantastic place to watch a baseball game. The food is excellent, for ballpark food, with a large variety of Seattle favorites, including Ivars seafood and of course the famous garlic fries. Eating a plate of those fries guarantees that no amount of cologne is going to hide the after effects of that dish for 3 days.
Jason Biggs (American Pie) threw out the first pitch and was at the game with Joel David Moore (Avatar) sitting a few rows in front of us. I wouldn't know either of them if I tripped over them other than noticing that Moore was acting quite eccentric. It is probably a Hollywood thing far beyond my understanding. I had to look both of them up on Wikipedia when I got home just to know who they were.
My brief synopsis of this mess of a game is as follows. The Mariners made two errors in the first leading to two runs, one on Lopez and one on Figgins. Both could have easily been charged to Lopez as he was involved in both plays. The first one could have been charged to Kotchman but apparently it is illegal to charge Kotchman with an error under MLB rule 12.18, section 6.b. He has to provide some value to the team other than hitting meaningless home runs in the bottom of the ninth with his squad down 7 and two out, nobody on, like he did today.
In the next inning, Rowland-Smith (The Hyphen) threw one of his 3 wild pitches allowing a run to score. His other one moved a runner to scoring position who also eventually scored. Saunders had an awful game that included dropping a fly ball in the sun and also flying out to Teixeira on a bunt attempt with no outs and nobody on in the third. Of course, his error, which was scored a double, cost the Mariners a run. To add insult to injury, Guittierez dropped a fly ball in the sun a couple innings later. This is unreal to me and can only be explained by mental lapse. I know we don't get a lot of sun in Seattle but the sky was crisp blue, no clouds.
Fortunately, The Hyphen was pulled after 4 innings, in which the Yankees scored 6 runs, 4 earned. I use the term, "earned" loosely here as dropping fly balls and wild pitching the Yanks around the bases didn't exactly make them "earn" anything. Thames hit a home run to left later in the game that went off the upper deck ESPN billboard. It was one of those home runs where the outfielder didn't move, just turned around and waived at it.
On a bright note, Guittierez made a spectacular catch in LF on a ball scorched to right center. He nabbed it at full speed with about 2-3 feet left before the wall. Final game note; it is a good thing the game was at the Safe today and not at Yankee stadium. The Yanks hit 4 balls that went out to within 5-10 feet left or right of the 385 foot sign in right center field that were caught. They all would have left the yard at the stadium.
Today the Mariners went through the motions and looked like they gave up as soon as the game started. When a team goes out and commits 2 throwing errors on routine plays, has 3 wild pitches and loses 2 fly ball in the outfield in the first 5 innings, that is a sign of a team that is mentally checked out. Maybe during the break they can come back and least look like they are making an effort and minimize the circus of mental errors that were made today. Otherwise, my suggestion is going to be to purge the roster and let the young guys get playing time to prepare for next year.
I had forgotten how generally disinterested the fans are at Safeco as I had not been since last year. The loudest cheer during the game was when the grounds crew danced at the end of the third inning with the Yankees already up 3-0. While I do not want to continually harp on the malady that has been this season, I do want to point out that the Safe is a fantastic place to watch a baseball game. The food is excellent, for ballpark food, with a large variety of Seattle favorites, including Ivars seafood and of course the famous garlic fries. Eating a plate of those fries guarantees that no amount of cologne is going to hide the after effects of that dish for 3 days.
Jason Biggs (American Pie) threw out the first pitch and was at the game with Joel David Moore (Avatar) sitting a few rows in front of us. I wouldn't know either of them if I tripped over them other than noticing that Moore was acting quite eccentric. It is probably a Hollywood thing far beyond my understanding. I had to look both of them up on Wikipedia when I got home just to know who they were.
My brief synopsis of this mess of a game is as follows. The Mariners made two errors in the first leading to two runs, one on Lopez and one on Figgins. Both could have easily been charged to Lopez as he was involved in both plays. The first one could have been charged to Kotchman but apparently it is illegal to charge Kotchman with an error under MLB rule 12.18, section 6.b. He has to provide some value to the team other than hitting meaningless home runs in the bottom of the ninth with his squad down 7 and two out, nobody on, like he did today.
In the next inning, Rowland-Smith (The Hyphen) threw one of his 3 wild pitches allowing a run to score. His other one moved a runner to scoring position who also eventually scored. Saunders had an awful game that included dropping a fly ball in the sun and also flying out to Teixeira on a bunt attempt with no outs and nobody on in the third. Of course, his error, which was scored a double, cost the Mariners a run. To add insult to injury, Guittierez dropped a fly ball in the sun a couple innings later. This is unreal to me and can only be explained by mental lapse. I know we don't get a lot of sun in Seattle but the sky was crisp blue, no clouds.
Fortunately, The Hyphen was pulled after 4 innings, in which the Yankees scored 6 runs, 4 earned. I use the term, "earned" loosely here as dropping fly balls and wild pitching the Yanks around the bases didn't exactly make them "earn" anything. Thames hit a home run to left later in the game that went off the upper deck ESPN billboard. It was one of those home runs where the outfielder didn't move, just turned around and waived at it.
On a bright note, Guittierez made a spectacular catch in LF on a ball scorched to right center. He nabbed it at full speed with about 2-3 feet left before the wall. Final game note; it is a good thing the game was at the Safe today and not at Yankee stadium. The Yanks hit 4 balls that went out to within 5-10 feet left or right of the 385 foot sign in right center field that were caught. They all would have left the yard at the stadium.
Today the Mariners went through the motions and looked like they gave up as soon as the game started. When a team goes out and commits 2 throwing errors on routine plays, has 3 wild pitches and loses 2 fly ball in the outfield in the first 5 innings, that is a sign of a team that is mentally checked out. Maybe during the break they can come back and least look like they are making an effort and minimize the circus of mental errors that were made today. Otherwise, my suggestion is going to be to purge the roster and let the young guys get playing time to prepare for next year.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Upon Further Review
Prior to getting to the crux of this review, some short commentary on recent events with the Ms. I think Jackie Z did a good job on the handling of Cliff Lee from start to finish. He basically stole Lee from the Phillies and then parlayed that into a bat and 3 decent prospects. It should be also noted the value that Lee provided to the team off the mound, and in particular, the pitching staff. I don’t think that Vargas and Fister would be the same pitchers without the influence of a consummate professional like Lee and it was a pleasure to watch him every fifth day as a Mariner. I did have the opportunity to see him pitch in person against the Padres, which was not his best outing (I think he gave up 6-7 runs), but the Mariners spotted him a 9-10 run lead by the third inning. I actually had to look around the stadium and make sure that I hadn’t accidentally drunk too much and ended up at Yankee stadium by accident.
I have mixed feelings about giving up Lowe in the Lee trade with the Rangers. As discussed later in this column, he added tremendous value to this team in 2009. What prompted this column was the performance of the Mariners bullpen in the past 5 games. In the sweep at the hands of the Royals, the Mariners starters all turned in quality starts only to have the bullpen blow the lead. In the first game against the Yankees, ditto. In last night’s game, the man who was asked to start in place of recently departed Cliff Lee was David Pauley, a recent call up from Tacoma and 8th round draft pick of the Padres back in 2001. Up to this start, he has bounced around the minors and has had 31 1/3 innings of major league experience, mostly with the Red Sox. So he has seen the Yankees before. He pitched well for 5 innings giving up only two hits, 3 runs (2 unearned). The HR he gave up to Tiexera in the first had its own flight plan, but that’s OK.
Anyway, I like to approach this writing hobby by watching games, forming an opinion of what I see with my eyes, and then validating what I saw with statistics and hopefully a reasonable explanation of the two. This accomplishes two goals, it tells me if what I am seeing and if my first formed opinion has any merit, and conversely tells me if I am missing something when I am watching the games.
In my initial review of the Mariners at the halfway point Here , I left out one aspect of the team that is different from last year’s squad which on the surface I completely overlooked but has been a sore point since opening day. For as stellar as the Mariners starting pitching has been this season, their bullpen has been a disaster. To compare (rankings are for AL)
2009 2010
Marniners Team ERA ERA Rank ERA Rank
Total 3.87 1 3.90 3
Starters 3.89 1 3.56 1
Relievers 3.83 3 4.80 14
2009 2010
Holds 82 17
Full 2009 Mariners relievers statistics are Here
Full 2010 Mariners relivers statistics are Here
I really don’t where to begin. In 2009, I was joking with my girlfriend at a Red Sox game while watching the relief pitchers warm up, that Batista was the guy the Ms brought into the game when they wanted to lose. This was a case where what I saw live didn’t match the statistical reality. I only mention this because my girlfriend didn’t really care whether or not Batista could go into a game in a critical situation and hold the lead, what she cared about was that he was a gorgeous man. She told John Wettland (Ms bullpen coach) that watching the pitchers warm up was like watching Playboy TV for women. Needless to say, this hurt my feelings considerably and she is no longer my girlfriend. John Wettland thought it was hilarious. For those of you who have not been to Safeco, it is one of the neatest ballparks in America. You can get that close to the relievers warming up for both teams and talk to them, if they will oblige. I plan to write a column on the ballparks that I have visited and the fan experience through my eyes, with Camden Yards being my favorite, but I digress.
The number that explains the Mariners pitching problem more than any other in this list is the number of holds that the Mariners pen has been able to obtain, or in this case, to not obtain. Projecting 2010 out to the full year, the number would be 34. That is 48! less holds for the season. That is also an astounding number. Assuming that only 50% of those occasions translated into wins, that would translate into 24 more wins for this team! So while everyone and their uncle bemoans the fact that this team cannot hit and is on pace to score less than 600 runs this year (worst in the AL, second worse in MLB) and correctly so, the bullpen should also be accountable for this continued train wreck of a season. Taking half of the holds total and adding it to the win column in the current standings, the Mariners would be 46-40 and 4 games back of the Rangers.
While Aardsma has struggled a bit this year, I don’t place the blame of this situation squarely on him and cite two factors that I think are directly responsible for this atrocity: First, the absence of Mark Lowe and second, the attitude that the bullpen had last year as a unit. The latter cannot be understated.
Lowe had 26 holds last year, a 2.5 to 1 K/W ratio, and was the setup guy for the Mariners. While this is quantitatively a good performance, his effect on the psyche of the bullpen cannot be underestimated. The Mariners bullpen last year had attitude. This had to have some positive effect on Aardsma and the other relievers. The bullpen, for some time, would bring different warrior helmets to the game and display them in the bullpen. They were a unit that said, “When we come into a game, we are going to shut you down”. Of course, this tradition had to end because MLB thought it might offend some long lost descendent of the Viking population that happened to have brought his boat to Safeco to take in a game in the spare time that he had from raping and pillaging modern society.
The substitute for Lowe is League, who is still an enigma to me as his stats are not awful but marginally worse than Lowe’s, except in holds (6, projects to 12, 2/1 K/W ratio) and a 3.95 ERA for League versus 3.26 for Lowe. Apparently, what seems to be a minor difference is a remarkable difference in overall performance as Lowe lost 7 games all year and League has already lost 6. Maybe he is worrying too much about his next tattoo and hair style to focus on pitching in tight games. It should be pointed out here that League was part of the saga that was Brandon Morrow, as he was one of the players that the Mariners received from the Blue Jays in that swap during the offseason.
Sean White has been injured on and off and that may be the reason for why he hasn’t performed this year and the loss of Batista through free agency hurt this team more than I expected. So when I say I have mixed feelings about this Lee trade, it comes down not only to what the Ms got in return, but what they gave up. While Lowe has not pitched this year due to injury, he was an invaluable member of this bullpen and a key reason why the Mariners finished so much better than their run differential in 2009.
I have mixed feelings about giving up Lowe in the Lee trade with the Rangers. As discussed later in this column, he added tremendous value to this team in 2009. What prompted this column was the performance of the Mariners bullpen in the past 5 games. In the sweep at the hands of the Royals, the Mariners starters all turned in quality starts only to have the bullpen blow the lead. In the first game against the Yankees, ditto. In last night’s game, the man who was asked to start in place of recently departed Cliff Lee was David Pauley, a recent call up from Tacoma and 8th round draft pick of the Padres back in 2001. Up to this start, he has bounced around the minors and has had 31 1/3 innings of major league experience, mostly with the Red Sox. So he has seen the Yankees before. He pitched well for 5 innings giving up only two hits, 3 runs (2 unearned). The HR he gave up to Tiexera in the first had its own flight plan, but that’s OK.
Anyway, I like to approach this writing hobby by watching games, forming an opinion of what I see with my eyes, and then validating what I saw with statistics and hopefully a reasonable explanation of the two. This accomplishes two goals, it tells me if what I am seeing and if my first formed opinion has any merit, and conversely tells me if I am missing something when I am watching the games.
In my initial review of the Mariners at the halfway point Here , I left out one aspect of the team that is different from last year’s squad which on the surface I completely overlooked but has been a sore point since opening day. For as stellar as the Mariners starting pitching has been this season, their bullpen has been a disaster. To compare (rankings are for AL)
2009 2010
Marniners Team ERA ERA Rank ERA Rank
Total 3.87 1 3.90 3
Starters 3.89 1 3.56 1
Relievers 3.83 3 4.80 14
2009 2010
Holds 82 17
Full 2009 Mariners relievers statistics are Here
Full 2010 Mariners relivers statistics are Here
I really don’t where to begin. In 2009, I was joking with my girlfriend at a Red Sox game while watching the relief pitchers warm up, that Batista was the guy the Ms brought into the game when they wanted to lose. This was a case where what I saw live didn’t match the statistical reality. I only mention this because my girlfriend didn’t really care whether or not Batista could go into a game in a critical situation and hold the lead, what she cared about was that he was a gorgeous man. She told John Wettland (Ms bullpen coach) that watching the pitchers warm up was like watching Playboy TV for women. Needless to say, this hurt my feelings considerably and she is no longer my girlfriend. John Wettland thought it was hilarious. For those of you who have not been to Safeco, it is one of the neatest ballparks in America. You can get that close to the relievers warming up for both teams and talk to them, if they will oblige. I plan to write a column on the ballparks that I have visited and the fan experience through my eyes, with Camden Yards being my favorite, but I digress.
The number that explains the Mariners pitching problem more than any other in this list is the number of holds that the Mariners pen has been able to obtain, or in this case, to not obtain. Projecting 2010 out to the full year, the number would be 34. That is 48! less holds for the season. That is also an astounding number. Assuming that only 50% of those occasions translated into wins, that would translate into 24 more wins for this team! So while everyone and their uncle bemoans the fact that this team cannot hit and is on pace to score less than 600 runs this year (worst in the AL, second worse in MLB) and correctly so, the bullpen should also be accountable for this continued train wreck of a season. Taking half of the holds total and adding it to the win column in the current standings, the Mariners would be 46-40 and 4 games back of the Rangers.
While Aardsma has struggled a bit this year, I don’t place the blame of this situation squarely on him and cite two factors that I think are directly responsible for this atrocity: First, the absence of Mark Lowe and second, the attitude that the bullpen had last year as a unit. The latter cannot be understated.
Lowe had 26 holds last year, a 2.5 to 1 K/W ratio, and was the setup guy for the Mariners. While this is quantitatively a good performance, his effect on the psyche of the bullpen cannot be underestimated. The Mariners bullpen last year had attitude. This had to have some positive effect on Aardsma and the other relievers. The bullpen, for some time, would bring different warrior helmets to the game and display them in the bullpen. They were a unit that said, “When we come into a game, we are going to shut you down”. Of course, this tradition had to end because MLB thought it might offend some long lost descendent of the Viking population that happened to have brought his boat to Safeco to take in a game in the spare time that he had from raping and pillaging modern society.
The substitute for Lowe is League, who is still an enigma to me as his stats are not awful but marginally worse than Lowe’s, except in holds (6, projects to 12, 2/1 K/W ratio) and a 3.95 ERA for League versus 3.26 for Lowe. Apparently, what seems to be a minor difference is a remarkable difference in overall performance as Lowe lost 7 games all year and League has already lost 6. Maybe he is worrying too much about his next tattoo and hair style to focus on pitching in tight games. It should be pointed out here that League was part of the saga that was Brandon Morrow, as he was one of the players that the Mariners received from the Blue Jays in that swap during the offseason.
Sean White has been injured on and off and that may be the reason for why he hasn’t performed this year and the loss of Batista through free agency hurt this team more than I expected. So when I say I have mixed feelings about this Lee trade, it comes down not only to what the Ms got in return, but what they gave up. While Lowe has not pitched this year due to injury, he was an invaluable member of this bullpen and a key reason why the Mariners finished so much better than their run differential in 2009.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Deja Vu All Over Again - KC/Ms
3-2 Mariners, top of the 8th. League in as the "setup guy". There must be a new definition that means literally "I am going to come in and set up the opposing team with a win".
Dejesus and Butler walked. Callaspo hit a 97 mph fastball that landed in my living room. Mind you, I am 10 miles from the stadium.
Wakamatsu brings in Olsen. Ugh.
Prediction - I am going to post this while KC is still batting in the 8th. Mariners threaten in the 8th but don't score. They have already had the bases loaded twice in this game without scoring, once with one out and once with two outs. KC wont score in the ninth, Soria will come on and the punchless Ms will go weakly in the 9th. Swept at home by the Royals. It is actually painful to write that last sentence.
PS - While finishing this post, Maier hit a home run that actually went farther than the Callaspo HR, so I guess by my estimatess it flew over my house and hit my neighbor!
Dejesus and Butler walked. Callaspo hit a 97 mph fastball that landed in my living room. Mind you, I am 10 miles from the stadium.
Wakamatsu brings in Olsen. Ugh.
Prediction - I am going to post this while KC is still batting in the 8th. Mariners threaten in the 8th but don't score. They have already had the bases loaded twice in this game without scoring, once with one out and once with two outs. KC wont score in the ninth, Soria will come on and the punchless Ms will go weakly in the 9th. Swept at home by the Royals. It is actually painful to write that last sentence.
PS - While finishing this post, Maier hit a home run that actually went farther than the Callaspo HR, so I guess by my estimatess it flew over my house and hit my neighbor!
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Kansas City 6, Mariners 4 - We've Seen This Before
Wow. I thought that they were done repeating the same mistakes that have been haunting this team the entire season. Wrong again. In last night’s 6-4 loss to the Royals, in 10 innings, dropping their extra inning record to 1-8, they repeated the same script that they have so many times this season.
The story begins very promising, with our antagonists grabbing a 4-1 lead in the 5th inning; Branyan HR and King Felix cruising along in his usual fashion; Piling up pitch count, but getting his K per inning and not giving up runs. Felix has a nice ability to get himself out of trouble by kicking it into that next level. I unfortunately know the ending to this story having watched it countless times this season.
Wakamatsu goes to the new set up guy in the bullpen, Brandon League, after Felix has thrown 112 pitches. League scares me. He has a very odd delivery that tricks my eyes because I never believe he is throwing the ball as hard as the radar gun suggests. It looks like he is chucking it up there not quite sidearm but not quite ¾ delivery, yet the ball is regularly in there at 96 mph. He is either lights out or coughs up the lead. Far too often, he coughs up the lead. I can’t tell from watching and don’t have access to ask anyone why this is but I would surmise it is because his fastball is delivered at eye level and either has movement or is flat. Now that (movement) is naturally the case with any pitcher, but on TV it looks to me like he had good movement last night.
Anyhow, he coughed up the lead. 4-4, moving to the bottom of the 8th. The Royals reluctantly go to their bullpen which has to be giving Ned Yost ulcers. They have given up more runs in the 7th and 8th inning than any team in baseball so there is hope for the punchless Mariners. Keep in mind that I still know the ending to this story but much like a bad car accident, I can’t help myself but to watch.
Branyan walks and Lopez doubles to right. Lucky double but we’ll take it. Men on second and third, nobody out and the D.A. warming up in the pen. I love that the Mariners announcer, Dave Simms, tagged David Aardsma with the nickname D.A. and that they play the Law and Order music when he comes into the game. Great stuff. Side note: Mariners fans at the game have seen this movie before as well. The crowd is busy drinking lattes and discussing whether or not it will rain clear through to December.
This is the point at which I can feel my blood pressure going up. Guttierez can do almost anything to get that run in except for striking out and popping up to the infield. Naturally he strikes out swinging. They intentionally walk Kotchman to get to Bradley. That sentence alone is pathetic/funny/ludicrous on so many levels. Bradley, who is being paid Carlos Silva money to play here, also strikes out.
Research forthcoming on how many times the Mariners have had runners on 2nd, 3rd or both with less than 2 out and didn’t score. It is freakishly high. There was a series in Texas earlier in the year where they did it 3 games in a row!
Cordero now on for the M's after Aardsma gets through the 9th. The top of the 10th was very odd in that two of the three outs were caught stealing, yet the Royals scored two runs. The one that irks me to no end begins with 2 outs, game stil tied. To recap the start of the inning, Callapso walked and got caught stealing. Aviles grounded out and then Maier tripled. Betancourt to the plate. This is where the mild anuerism set in. Cordero gets 2 quick strikes. It is important to note here that Betancourt has ZERO plate discipline (10 walks in 286 plate appearances, good for dead last of all MLB players with over 250 plate appearances), but if the ball is thrown over the middle of the plate, like most major leaguers, he can hit it. The next pitch was down the pipe and of course, Betancourt hit it plating Maier.
Throw the ball at the mascot, the umpire, anywhere but over the plate and there is a high probability that Betancourt will K. Baffling.
The story begins very promising, with our antagonists grabbing a 4-1 lead in the 5th inning; Branyan HR and King Felix cruising along in his usual fashion; Piling up pitch count, but getting his K per inning and not giving up runs. Felix has a nice ability to get himself out of trouble by kicking it into that next level. I unfortunately know the ending to this story having watched it countless times this season.
Wakamatsu goes to the new set up guy in the bullpen, Brandon League, after Felix has thrown 112 pitches. League scares me. He has a very odd delivery that tricks my eyes because I never believe he is throwing the ball as hard as the radar gun suggests. It looks like he is chucking it up there not quite sidearm but not quite ¾ delivery, yet the ball is regularly in there at 96 mph. He is either lights out or coughs up the lead. Far too often, he coughs up the lead. I can’t tell from watching and don’t have access to ask anyone why this is but I would surmise it is because his fastball is delivered at eye level and either has movement or is flat. Now that (movement) is naturally the case with any pitcher, but on TV it looks to me like he had good movement last night.
Anyhow, he coughed up the lead. 4-4, moving to the bottom of the 8th. The Royals reluctantly go to their bullpen which has to be giving Ned Yost ulcers. They have given up more runs in the 7th and 8th inning than any team in baseball so there is hope for the punchless Mariners. Keep in mind that I still know the ending to this story but much like a bad car accident, I can’t help myself but to watch.
Branyan walks and Lopez doubles to right. Lucky double but we’ll take it. Men on second and third, nobody out and the D.A. warming up in the pen. I love that the Mariners announcer, Dave Simms, tagged David Aardsma with the nickname D.A. and that they play the Law and Order music when he comes into the game. Great stuff. Side note: Mariners fans at the game have seen this movie before as well. The crowd is busy drinking lattes and discussing whether or not it will rain clear through to December.
This is the point at which I can feel my blood pressure going up. Guttierez can do almost anything to get that run in except for striking out and popping up to the infield. Naturally he strikes out swinging. They intentionally walk Kotchman to get to Bradley. That sentence alone is pathetic/funny/ludicrous on so many levels. Bradley, who is being paid Carlos Silva money to play here, also strikes out.
Research forthcoming on how many times the Mariners have had runners on 2nd, 3rd or both with less than 2 out and didn’t score. It is freakishly high. There was a series in Texas earlier in the year where they did it 3 games in a row!
Cordero now on for the M's after Aardsma gets through the 9th. The top of the 10th was very odd in that two of the three outs were caught stealing, yet the Royals scored two runs. The one that irks me to no end begins with 2 outs, game stil tied. To recap the start of the inning, Callapso walked and got caught stealing. Aviles grounded out and then Maier tripled. Betancourt to the plate. This is where the mild anuerism set in. Cordero gets 2 quick strikes. It is important to note here that Betancourt has ZERO plate discipline (10 walks in 286 plate appearances, good for dead last of all MLB players with over 250 plate appearances), but if the ball is thrown over the middle of the plate, like most major leaguers, he can hit it. The next pitch was down the pipe and of course, Betancourt hit it plating Maier.
Throw the ball at the mascot, the umpire, anywhere but over the plate and there is a high probability that Betancourt will K. Baffling.
Monday, July 5, 2010
Mariners at the Halfway Point
At the halfway point of the 2010 season, the Mariners currently stand at 34-47, 14 games behind Texas in the AL West and have been outscored 343-281, for a run differential of minus 62 runs.. Last year, the Mariners finished the season 85-77, 12 games behind Los Angels even though they were outscored 692-640, for a differential of minus 52 runs. Certainly not what we expected, or is it?
There are numerous contributing factors to the record the Mariners have posted this year, most of which should not be a surprise. They are, in no particular order, the general weakness of the farm system going into the season, the ridiculous level of expectations with no regard to analysis and statistics, failure to asses that they were lucky last year, and the lack of even one major league power hitter in the lineup. I will maintain that they are exactly where I expected them to be but since I can offer no credence to that assertation other than a few conversations that were had with my friends here in Seattle, you will just have to take my word for it. Both that I have friends and that the conversations actually took place!
Failure to assess the “Luck Factor”
In addition to the expectations that seemed to follow this team going into the season from the moves made in the offseason was the notion that they would repeat the statistical anomaly that was last season. The Mariners finished 9-10 wins above their projected PECOTA rankings last season and had career years from Lopez and Branyan AND won an improbable number of one run games. To put it more succinctly, they were lucky. This year, they are about where they should be given the run differential that they have posted at the halfway point of the season.
High expectations are the hallmark of any professional team going into the season. It is one of the assets of any sport that makes the game passionate for the fans and players. That being said, baseball is one of the few sports where one can statistically predict the outcome of a baseball team before the season happens with relative accuracy. There are very few surprises in baseball.
Expectations and Jackie Z
I will forever be calling Jack Zduriencik Jackie Z in this post. Just easier to type and misspelling his name 100 times is frustrating.
Here are some predictions that I found on the web. The comments are not mine, but those of the writer of the column. I am shocked that Posnanski missed this given his long history of writing with Rob Neyer and coverage of the Royals. Only two are listed specifically here as I could not find the ESPN archived predictions but every site visited that was found had the Mariners either winning the division or coming in second.
MLB Tribune – 94 wins, second in the west. They have the best one-two punch in newly signed Cliff Lee and their big man King Felix Hernandez. They also signed Chone Figgins for some needed offense. This team has made some nice moves this winter and should be much improved and possible make a run for the division or worst case a Wild Card bid.
Joe Posnanski – 87 wins, division winner. Comment: The Mariners rather famously have gone after defense … and they should again be a spectacular defensive team. And with the acquisition of Figgins, Casey Kotchman and Milton Bradley they should score more runs. But while the Mariners are everyone’s favorite including my own going into the season, it is worth remembering that Seattle scored just 640 runs last year, dead last in the league by a longshot. That 640 runs was only better than TWO National League teams — and at last check they let the pitchers hit in that league.
Why, why, why? Why can’t I find one analyst who looked at the simple fact that this team was not going to score runs? They added Figgins and Bradley, neither of which are playing to their potential, but subtracted all of their power by letting Branyan walk and not resigning Beltre. The latter is not an issue as he was terrible last year (.265/.304/.379, 8 HRs) despite being nagged with various injuries, the most infamous being not wearing a cup. The Mariners shelled out $15 M or so for his services. One point on Bradley, he is never healthy and has never hit more than 22 HRs in a season. It is curious that with so much stress on pitching and defense that he was signed in the first place. To the casual observer, he has no business in LF and should be occupying the DH spot in the lineup with Sweeney. Posnanski hinted at the lack of runs in his column but apparently drank the Jackie Z kool aid like the rest of the media. In honor of Griffey, I have nothing to add other than that it was obvious at the end of last year that he should of hung it up.
I am all for pitching and defense as a methodology to win ballgames and building a team that fits the ballpark where the majority of your games are played however there are two things to remember. 81 games are still played in other team’s ballparks and reducing the margin of error by ignoring power to this degree puts a tremendous strain on the team and in particular, the pitching staff. Cliff Lee must have recurring nightmares about losing 1-0 games.
No Power
The local media discussions during the first half of the season here in Seattle centered around why the Mariners could not score runs and generally bordered on the incredulous. As if this was shocking news. Multiple solutions were offered up by the armchair GMs including batting Ichiro somewhere else in the lineup, blaming Jackie Z for failing to see this, blaming the stadium for being too pitcher friendly, blaming Don Wakamatsu for not bathing his dog on Wednesday day games, etc. The bottom line of all this nonsense is that if a team does not have the talent on its roster to score runs; it is not going to score runs. My a priori sense tells me that batting Ichiro third in the lineup may give Ichiro more RBIs, but he will also score less runs himself and this also assumes that there is someone in the order that can get on base in front of him for him to drive in. The Mariners currently rank LAST in the AL with .241/.309/.349 hitting which is, needless to say, abysmal. If they were league average, given that they are third in pitching with a 3.88 ERA, they would be plus 27 in run differential and most likely within 5 games of Texas for the lead in the division. To look deeper, here is their normal starting lineup with reserve players currently on the roster.
Starters
Ichiro .328/.383/.419
Figgins .239/.338/.280
Gutierrez .277/.350/.421
Bradley .212/297/.370 OR Sweeney.263/.327/.475
Branyan .267/.332/.503
Lopez .242/.272/.332
Josh Wilson .264/.316/.346
Johnson .200/.307/.307
Saunders .210/.271/.429
Reserves
Jack Wilson .250/.265/.333
Alfonso .220/.220/.317
Kotchman .206/.288/.325
The league average for slugging is .407. The Mariners average with this group of players that currently occupy roster space is .365 and that is with Branyan’s Cleveland stats included, who now comes to the team with the highest slugging percentage, and there isn’t a close second. Common sense tells me that it doesn’t matter where Ichiro bats in this lineup. If he bats lower, it is statistically likely that he will be left on base and score less runs, even though he may produce more RBIs. While I am sure that there is an analysis that can be churned out to prove this theory, I don’t know how to do it and don’t have the time to do it. I am currently looking for a site where scenario analysis statistics can be run. Probably on baseball prospectus. The long and short of this exercise is the talent does not currently exist on this roster to produce more runs and they will not score more runs until run producing talent is added. So where does this run producing talent come from?
The Farm System
Fixing what Bill Bavasi did to this team is going to take some time. I have every faith in the skill set that Jackie Z brings to the table as the GM of the Seattle Mariners as explained so well in this article by Rany Jazayerli here (http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2010_05_16_archive.html)which is partially about the talent that was developed in Milwaukee under Jackie Z’s watch (Rany on the Royals) but it will take a few years to repair the disaster known as the Bill Bavasi experiment. His reign of terror in Seattle is well documented; the Baltimore fleecing a la Bedard, the head case that is now Brandon Morrow, why not draft UW prospect Tim Lincecum who openly wants to play at home, etc., so I don’t want to go into that because in general it prevents me from sleeping at night.
The bottom line is that the farm system is a mess. A review of the farm system deserves its own post so that is forthcoming.
My hope is that anyone reading this finds it informational and useful and had as much fun reading it as I did writing it. Future posts: prospects, trade deadline, the Seattle sports fan.
There are numerous contributing factors to the record the Mariners have posted this year, most of which should not be a surprise. They are, in no particular order, the general weakness of the farm system going into the season, the ridiculous level of expectations with no regard to analysis and statistics, failure to asses that they were lucky last year, and the lack of even one major league power hitter in the lineup. I will maintain that they are exactly where I expected them to be but since I can offer no credence to that assertation other than a few conversations that were had with my friends here in Seattle, you will just have to take my word for it. Both that I have friends and that the conversations actually took place!
Failure to assess the “Luck Factor”
In addition to the expectations that seemed to follow this team going into the season from the moves made in the offseason was the notion that they would repeat the statistical anomaly that was last season. The Mariners finished 9-10 wins above their projected PECOTA rankings last season and had career years from Lopez and Branyan AND won an improbable number of one run games. To put it more succinctly, they were lucky. This year, they are about where they should be given the run differential that they have posted at the halfway point of the season.
High expectations are the hallmark of any professional team going into the season. It is one of the assets of any sport that makes the game passionate for the fans and players. That being said, baseball is one of the few sports where one can statistically predict the outcome of a baseball team before the season happens with relative accuracy. There are very few surprises in baseball.
Expectations and Jackie Z
I will forever be calling Jack Zduriencik Jackie Z in this post. Just easier to type and misspelling his name 100 times is frustrating.
Here are some predictions that I found on the web. The comments are not mine, but those of the writer of the column. I am shocked that Posnanski missed this given his long history of writing with Rob Neyer and coverage of the Royals. Only two are listed specifically here as I could not find the ESPN archived predictions but every site visited that was found had the Mariners either winning the division or coming in second.
MLB Tribune – 94 wins, second in the west. They have the best one-two punch in newly signed Cliff Lee and their big man King Felix Hernandez. They also signed Chone Figgins for some needed offense. This team has made some nice moves this winter and should be much improved and possible make a run for the division or worst case a Wild Card bid.
Joe Posnanski – 87 wins, division winner. Comment: The Mariners rather famously have gone after defense … and they should again be a spectacular defensive team. And with the acquisition of Figgins, Casey Kotchman and Milton Bradley they should score more runs. But while the Mariners are everyone’s favorite including my own going into the season, it is worth remembering that Seattle scored just 640 runs last year, dead last in the league by a longshot. That 640 runs was only better than TWO National League teams — and at last check they let the pitchers hit in that league.
Why, why, why? Why can’t I find one analyst who looked at the simple fact that this team was not going to score runs? They added Figgins and Bradley, neither of which are playing to their potential, but subtracted all of their power by letting Branyan walk and not resigning Beltre. The latter is not an issue as he was terrible last year (.265/.304/.379, 8 HRs) despite being nagged with various injuries, the most infamous being not wearing a cup. The Mariners shelled out $15 M or so for his services. One point on Bradley, he is never healthy and has never hit more than 22 HRs in a season. It is curious that with so much stress on pitching and defense that he was signed in the first place. To the casual observer, he has no business in LF and should be occupying the DH spot in the lineup with Sweeney. Posnanski hinted at the lack of runs in his column but apparently drank the Jackie Z kool aid like the rest of the media. In honor of Griffey, I have nothing to add other than that it was obvious at the end of last year that he should of hung it up.
I am all for pitching and defense as a methodology to win ballgames and building a team that fits the ballpark where the majority of your games are played however there are two things to remember. 81 games are still played in other team’s ballparks and reducing the margin of error by ignoring power to this degree puts a tremendous strain on the team and in particular, the pitching staff. Cliff Lee must have recurring nightmares about losing 1-0 games.
No Power
The local media discussions during the first half of the season here in Seattle centered around why the Mariners could not score runs and generally bordered on the incredulous. As if this was shocking news. Multiple solutions were offered up by the armchair GMs including batting Ichiro somewhere else in the lineup, blaming Jackie Z for failing to see this, blaming the stadium for being too pitcher friendly, blaming Don Wakamatsu for not bathing his dog on Wednesday day games, etc. The bottom line of all this nonsense is that if a team does not have the talent on its roster to score runs; it is not going to score runs. My a priori sense tells me that batting Ichiro third in the lineup may give Ichiro more RBIs, but he will also score less runs himself and this also assumes that there is someone in the order that can get on base in front of him for him to drive in. The Mariners currently rank LAST in the AL with .241/.309/.349 hitting which is, needless to say, abysmal. If they were league average, given that they are third in pitching with a 3.88 ERA, they would be plus 27 in run differential and most likely within 5 games of Texas for the lead in the division. To look deeper, here is their normal starting lineup with reserve players currently on the roster.
Starters
Ichiro .328/.383/.419
Figgins .239/.338/.280
Gutierrez .277/.350/.421
Bradley .212/297/.370 OR Sweeney.263/.327/.475
Branyan .267/.332/.503
Lopez .242/.272/.332
Josh Wilson .264/.316/.346
Johnson .200/.307/.307
Saunders .210/.271/.429
Reserves
Jack Wilson .250/.265/.333
Alfonso .220/.220/.317
Kotchman .206/.288/.325
The league average for slugging is .407. The Mariners average with this group of players that currently occupy roster space is .365 and that is with Branyan’s Cleveland stats included, who now comes to the team with the highest slugging percentage, and there isn’t a close second. Common sense tells me that it doesn’t matter where Ichiro bats in this lineup. If he bats lower, it is statistically likely that he will be left on base and score less runs, even though he may produce more RBIs. While I am sure that there is an analysis that can be churned out to prove this theory, I don’t know how to do it and don’t have the time to do it. I am currently looking for a site where scenario analysis statistics can be run. Probably on baseball prospectus. The long and short of this exercise is the talent does not currently exist on this roster to produce more runs and they will not score more runs until run producing talent is added. So where does this run producing talent come from?
The Farm System
Fixing what Bill Bavasi did to this team is going to take some time. I have every faith in the skill set that Jackie Z brings to the table as the GM of the Seattle Mariners as explained so well in this article by Rany Jazayerli here (http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2010_05_16_archive.html)which is partially about the talent that was developed in Milwaukee under Jackie Z’s watch (Rany on the Royals) but it will take a few years to repair the disaster known as the Bill Bavasi experiment. His reign of terror in Seattle is well documented; the Baltimore fleecing a la Bedard, the head case that is now Brandon Morrow, why not draft UW prospect Tim Lincecum who openly wants to play at home, etc., so I don’t want to go into that because in general it prevents me from sleeping at night.
The bottom line is that the farm system is a mess. A review of the farm system deserves its own post so that is forthcoming.
My hope is that anyone reading this finds it informational and useful and had as much fun reading it as I did writing it. Future posts: prospects, trade deadline, the Seattle sports fan.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
My First Post
Since this is my first blog I think it is necessary to give some context of who I am. And since this is my blog and I can write whatever I want I am going to do just that! I am just this guy who has a passion for baseball, politics and taking an interest in the city where I live. This city happens to be Seattle, WA. I moved here 6 years ago from Washington, DC and am originally from Buffalo, NY. My sports interests are the Sabres, Bills and Terrapins. The University of Maryland was gracious enough to give me a college degree and 635 parking tickets as a parting gift.
What is missing from that list is a baseball team and a pro basketball team. Pro basketball has no appeal to me and probably never will. There is no allegiance to a baseball team either. Growing up, despising the Yankees came early on and has carried with me throughout my life. More on that in a different post.
Moving from Buffalo to the DC area (this is before the Nats came to town, leaving DC before they came to town) I became an Orioles fan. The Oriole Way was intriguing; hard work, pitching and defense. Bring up your own developed players from the farm system and put a good team on the field, year after year. Two things happened to the Orioles that made me sour on them. Peter Angelos bought the team. From this fan’s perspective, he single handedly drove that once proud franchise into the ground. He has not put a quality product on the field in 15+ years and the mindset of how he runs that team disgusts me. Given that he made the bulk of his money suing tobacco companies, he comes across as a quick fix guy, with little morals and that has shown with the product that he continually passes off as a baseball team and inflicts on the wonderful city of Baltimore.
Moving from DC to Seattle in 2004, it was the Red Sox time, and I became a fan of that particular Red Sox team. Watching them since 1986 and the infamous Bill Buckner play, my compassion for their long suffering fans drove me to root for them, much like the Cubs, who I would root for if they ever were to get into the World Series. I am by no means a die-hard Sox fan and the team has changed dramatically since then.
Living in Seattle, there is no choice but to follow the Mariners because it is the only game on TV. I’m too cheap to buy the baseball package and most of the games are on at 4:00 PST which interferes with work. I go to about 3-4 games per year and watch almost all of them on TV. I would not call myself a Mariners fan, but since I live here and take an interest in the local teams and the city, it makes sense to follow them. During the season, most of these posts will be about the Mariners.
Fanaticism lies in Bills’ football, Sabres’ hockey and Terrapin’s sports. In retrospect, that is a very tortured existence, but that is a post or 10 for this fall.
I am not a professional writer and don’t pretend to be. For a living, I perform random acts of corporate finance and accounting. I also try to keep breathing each day, be thankful for the simple things in life that bring happiness and joy and always remember that no act of kindness, however small, is ever wasted (Aesop).
Happy Fourth of July. God bless our independence and those who keep this country free.
PS – Rereading this blog post, there is too much reference to “I” and “Me”. Not usually my style, however it will be left on the site as a reference point and some context into who I am. It is of great assistance to me when I read other people’s writing, especially people that do this for a living, to know the context in which they write. Most sports writers will say they are objective but then again, I don’t spend a lot of time reading that type of work!!
What is missing from that list is a baseball team and a pro basketball team. Pro basketball has no appeal to me and probably never will. There is no allegiance to a baseball team either. Growing up, despising the Yankees came early on and has carried with me throughout my life. More on that in a different post.
Moving from Buffalo to the DC area (this is before the Nats came to town, leaving DC before they came to town) I became an Orioles fan. The Oriole Way was intriguing; hard work, pitching and defense. Bring up your own developed players from the farm system and put a good team on the field, year after year. Two things happened to the Orioles that made me sour on them. Peter Angelos bought the team. From this fan’s perspective, he single handedly drove that once proud franchise into the ground. He has not put a quality product on the field in 15+ years and the mindset of how he runs that team disgusts me. Given that he made the bulk of his money suing tobacco companies, he comes across as a quick fix guy, with little morals and that has shown with the product that he continually passes off as a baseball team and inflicts on the wonderful city of Baltimore.
Moving from DC to Seattle in 2004, it was the Red Sox time, and I became a fan of that particular Red Sox team. Watching them since 1986 and the infamous Bill Buckner play, my compassion for their long suffering fans drove me to root for them, much like the Cubs, who I would root for if they ever were to get into the World Series. I am by no means a die-hard Sox fan and the team has changed dramatically since then.
Living in Seattle, there is no choice but to follow the Mariners because it is the only game on TV. I’m too cheap to buy the baseball package and most of the games are on at 4:00 PST which interferes with work. I go to about 3-4 games per year and watch almost all of them on TV. I would not call myself a Mariners fan, but since I live here and take an interest in the local teams and the city, it makes sense to follow them. During the season, most of these posts will be about the Mariners.
Fanaticism lies in Bills’ football, Sabres’ hockey and Terrapin’s sports. In retrospect, that is a very tortured existence, but that is a post or 10 for this fall.
I am not a professional writer and don’t pretend to be. For a living, I perform random acts of corporate finance and accounting. I also try to keep breathing each day, be thankful for the simple things in life that bring happiness and joy and always remember that no act of kindness, however small, is ever wasted (Aesop).
Happy Fourth of July. God bless our independence and those who keep this country free.
PS – Rereading this blog post, there is too much reference to “I” and “Me”. Not usually my style, however it will be left on the site as a reference point and some context into who I am. It is of great assistance to me when I read other people’s writing, especially people that do this for a living, to know the context in which they write. Most sports writers will say they are objective but then again, I don’t spend a lot of time reading that type of work!!
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)